How to Stop Rationalizing Risky Decisions as an Underdog
Don’t Let Your Perseverance Justify Self-Sabotage, Break Free from the Invisible Traps That Keep You Stuck
The Dangerous Psychology of the Underdog
Being the underdog can give you an edge—perseverance, drive, and purpose. But it can also trap you in patterns that justify risky decisions and self-sabotage. In The Underdog Curve, George Place explores these hidden pitfalls and how to break free from them.
If you’ve ever made a bad call and chalked it up to starting over or proving them wrong, this article is for you.
Let’s dive into why underdogs are more vulnerable to decision-making mistakes—and how to recognize the underdog pitfalls before they derail your progress.
Why Risky Decisions Feel Right (Even When They're Not)
Underdogs are survivors. They’ve overcome trauma, bias, and barriers. This resilience creates a dangerous belief: “I can handle anything.” That belief can fuel confidence—but also lead to impulsive, high-stakes moves with no real upside.
Often underdogs justify poor choices using an internal narrative of toughness. He shares his own experience: a willingness to “start over” repeatedly—new jobs, relationships, careers—because he believed he had nothing to lose.
But here’s the truth: there’s always something to lose. The cost of repeatedly starting over isn’t just financial—it’s emotional, relational, and reputational. Place calls this pattern “the invisible curse”—the invisible curse of unforced and avoidable errors.
Black Swans: The Hidden Dangers in Plain Sight
One of the most powerful insights about black swan events comes from an adaptation of Nassim Taleb’s concept, describing them as rare, unpredictable events with massive consequences.
But underdogs often miss the signs—not because they’re invisible, but because they’ve become numb to volatility. They’ve normalized chaos.
Black swan events show up in two forms:
- Trauma imposed involuntarily (e.g., childhood disadvantage, accidents)
- Volatility chosen voluntarily (e.g., unnecessary career shifts, risky relationships, starting over)
The second kind is preventable—but only if you recognize it as danger, not destiny.
How to Recognize a Black Swan Before It Hits
So how can you see the storm coming when you’re wired to walk through fire?
Here are three signs that you're rationalizing risk instead of evaluating it:
1. You Feel Like You Have “Nothing to Lose
This mindset is a trap. It minimizes the value of what you’ve already built. If you’ve gained ground in healing, relationships, or career—don’t throw it away for the thrill of starting over.
2. You’re Motivated by Resentment
Trying to prove others wrong might push you forward temporarily—but it’s not a strategy. This pattern is common among underdogs, especially when facing low expectations. Over time, the bitterness backfires.
3. You Avoid Planning Because You Think You’ll “Figure It Out”
Spontaneity can feel like freedom—but it’s often just fear in disguise. Planning isn't a weakness; it’s the foundation for sustainable growth.
Strategic Decision-Making for Underdogs
Instead of defaulting to bold, risky moves, consider shifting your mindset.
- Be selective about your battles. Only fight where stakes are meaningful and where credible observers will see your value.
- Avoid volatility you can control. Not all change is growth. Don’t mistake disruption for development.
- Track your trajectory. Visualize your life not as a series of resets, but as a line of progress. Avoid negative swings (black swans) that often take years to recover from.
Build Smarter, Not Louder
The takeaway from The Underdog Curve is simple: underdogs don’t need to prove anything—they need to build deliberately.
You’re not weak for wanting stability. You’re not boring for choosing preparation over improvisation. And you’re not a failure for staying the course when everyone else is chasing chaos. Stop justifying risky decisions in the name of resilience. Start shaping a life that’s as smart as it is bold.